Etched In Stone › Fireball Record
Fireball Record
Fireball is Watchfire AI's probabilistic forecasting system: ask it a question about the future and it returns a probability for each outcome, with the evidence and reasoning behind it.
Publicly available Fireball forecasts, Etched in Stone (i.e., documented and recorded) by Watchfire AI and independently timestamped so that any later alteration is detectable.
What this record proves, and what it does not · Check any forecast yourself
A note on forecast updating and why it matters
Why might a forecast have updates? Fireball re-runs each open forecast on a schedule, starting from the previous probabilities and adding the evidence that has emerged since, e.g. a candidate withdraws from an election, or a company's pending IPO listing date is delayed.
Why does the forecast change? New evidence moves the probability given to each option, and sometimes the previous most likely outcome changes; the question, the options and the resolution terms never change.
What does Etched In Stone do? It records every version Fireball publishes as a separate timestamped entry, so the first call, each update and the resolution stand side by side and none is rewritten.
The record
No forecasts have been recorded yet.